Friday, 28 October 2011

Randomness in Indian Society

Have you ever thought about the triumph of Manmohan Singh's Economics in 1991 being more of a fortuitious accident of circumsances,, the true test is whether Manmohan succeeds in this longer inning,( and there is no sign of that happening), a fool can succeed at one go, it takes patience for success in the long run.As in the probability concept of ergodicity everone reverts to their long run properties.Similarly let us not confuse money-making with genius enterprise, or policy based on incomplete knowledge of rational expectations in the stiflingly bureaucratic RBI, with carefully calibrated policy.
Ofcourse the above are examples of less dangerous randomness, taking symbols of mythology seriously like Advanis Rath Yatra are more dangerous examples of randomness at work.Regrettably even our political critics take their taste for symbolism too literally and thus confuse the public. I remember how NDTV and other channels post the Godhara riots made the mistake of symbolically blaming the entire Gujarati community and thus put itself in the corner, then later some of the media is overshooting in the reverse direction and taking Modis Sadbhavana gimmick seriously is far worse.

Talking of Modi-it is clear that the non blinking, self confident, insensitive leader has done well often in history, this is the link between playing with random emotions and success.

The property of stationarity in probability, means that we cannot rely on a constant state of the world-the world is ever changing, this can test leaders like Narendra Modi, L K Advani, not to mention RBI and Planning Commission and even Manmohan Singh as our blog shows...

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