Friday, 28 October 2011

Randomness in Indian Society

Have you ever thought about the triumph of Manmohan Singh's Economics in 1991 being more of a fortuitious accident of circumsances,, the true test is whether Manmohan succeeds in this longer inning,( and there is no sign of that happening), a fool can succeed at one go, it takes patience for success in the long run.As in the probability concept of ergodicity everone reverts to their long run properties.Similarly let us not confuse money-making with genius enterprise, or policy based on incomplete knowledge of rational expectations in the stiflingly bureaucratic RBI, with carefully calibrated policy.
Ofcourse the above are examples of less dangerous randomness, taking symbols of mythology seriously like Advanis Rath Yatra are more dangerous examples of randomness at work.Regrettably even our political critics take their taste for symbolism too literally and thus confuse the public. I remember how NDTV and other channels post the Godhara riots made the mistake of symbolically blaming the entire Gujarati community and thus put itself in the corner, then later some of the media is overshooting in the reverse direction and taking Modis Sadbhavana gimmick seriously is far worse.

Talking of Modi-it is clear that the non blinking, self confident, insensitive leader has done well often in history, this is the link between playing with random emotions and success.

The property of stationarity in probability, means that we cannot rely on a constant state of the world-the world is ever changing, this can test leaders like Narendra Modi, L K Advani, not to mention RBI and Planning Commission and even Manmohan Singh as our blog shows...

Saturday, 1 October 2011

Yusuf Pathan, rahul Dravid and India's cricketing future-Automatic versus Reflective Thinking

According to Psychology there are two ways of thinking-automatic, which is instinctive and reflexive which is studied, yusuf Pathan's style is obviously automatic, whereas Rahul Dravid is reflexive, whereas rahul was able to respond automatically in one day cricket to some extent, his response was not enough to make India reign supreme in a permanent manner, how much yusuf pathan is able to hone his automatic style, however will decide India's cricketing future...
According to Thaler in his book on behavioral economics"nudge"

the automatic system is rapid and is or feels instinctive, it does not involve what we associate with the word thinking.When you duck when a ball is thrown at you unexpectedly, or get nervous when your airplane hits turbulence, or smile when you see a cute puppy, you are using your automatic system, the parts of the brain associated with the automatic system are those associated with the oldest part of the brain, the part we share with lizards and puppies, the reflexive system is more deliberate and self concious.
The automatic system starts with no idea how to play golf or tennis, countless hours of practice however make one avoid reflection and use thae automatic system, (thus rahul could have possibly become even a greater one day player, )good golfers( like good cricketers) know the hazards of thinking too much, and might do better to just trust the gut and "just do it", the automatic system can be trained with a lot of repetition-but such training needs lot of time and effort, one reason why teenagers are risky drivers is that their automatic system has not had much practice and the reflexive system is much slower.

Reflexive thinking involves following rules, but automatic thinking does not involve breaking them, infact automatic thinking if honed does not need to be destructive, infact automatic thinking can coexist with reflexive thinking in the same person, witness yusuf's long match-winning innings for proof!!

If Yusuf can rely on his automatic system without getting India into trouble, our teams cricket life and his will be easier better and longer, but this means honing his automatic system to perfection like Viv Richards.....