Wednesday, 9 November 2011

Exchange Rate Overshooting in my own words..

The Overshooting condition states that permanent money supply increases lead to exchange rate depreciation in short run being larger than exchange rate depreciation in long run.
As money supply increases lead to returns on domestic currency deposits going down, but in long-run all returns equalize for this to happen exchange rate must appreciate. But this will only happen if exchange rate has depreciated beyond long run level and this will happen because in short run price is rigid, given this, increase in money supply causes short term interest rates to go down which means domestic returns fall below foreign returns, this permanent increase in money supply also means that the price of the domestic currency rises in terms of foreign currency, so expected exchange rate of domestic currency rises and exchange rate depreciates thus looked at simply(without expectations) because domestic returns fall there is a disincetivisation of foreign capital to invest in domestic economy. Thus foreign capital outflow increases and domestic currency depreciates. But in the long run "price rises" forcing central banks to increase rates in  response to rising inflation. This increase in rates attracts foreign capital leading to little appreciation of domestic currency. Thus, the domestic currency comes back to its long run depreciated equilibrium level. If the increase in money supply were temporary there would be no change in real money supply and simply the exchange rate would go directly to its long run level, remember the overshooting is there because in case of permanent money supply change there is a decline in domestic interst rate followed by depreciation of exchange rate, and a little bit of appreciation only in the long run whereas if money supply change is temporary there is only direct depreciation of exchange rate.

Friday, 28 October 2011

Randomness in Indian Society

Have you ever thought about the triumph of Manmohan Singh's Economics in 1991 being more of a fortuitious accident of circumsances,, the true test is whether Manmohan succeeds in this longer inning,( and there is no sign of that happening), a fool can succeed at one go, it takes patience for success in the long run.As in the probability concept of ergodicity everone reverts to their long run properties.Similarly let us not confuse money-making with genius enterprise, or policy based on incomplete knowledge of rational expectations in the stiflingly bureaucratic RBI, with carefully calibrated policy.
Ofcourse the above are examples of less dangerous randomness, taking symbols of mythology seriously like Advanis Rath Yatra are more dangerous examples of randomness at work.Regrettably even our political critics take their taste for symbolism too literally and thus confuse the public. I remember how NDTV and other channels post the Godhara riots made the mistake of symbolically blaming the entire Gujarati community and thus put itself in the corner, then later some of the media is overshooting in the reverse direction and taking Modis Sadbhavana gimmick seriously is far worse.

Talking of Modi-it is clear that the non blinking, self confident, insensitive leader has done well often in history, this is the link between playing with random emotions and success.

The property of stationarity in probability, means that we cannot rely on a constant state of the world-the world is ever changing, this can test leaders like Narendra Modi, L K Advani, not to mention RBI and Planning Commission and even Manmohan Singh as our blog shows...

Saturday, 1 October 2011

Yusuf Pathan, rahul Dravid and India's cricketing future-Automatic versus Reflective Thinking

According to Psychology there are two ways of thinking-automatic, which is instinctive and reflexive which is studied, yusuf Pathan's style is obviously automatic, whereas Rahul Dravid is reflexive, whereas rahul was able to respond automatically in one day cricket to some extent, his response was not enough to make India reign supreme in a permanent manner, how much yusuf pathan is able to hone his automatic style, however will decide India's cricketing future...
According to Thaler in his book on behavioral economics"nudge"

the automatic system is rapid and is or feels instinctive, it does not involve what we associate with the word thinking.When you duck when a ball is thrown at you unexpectedly, or get nervous when your airplane hits turbulence, or smile when you see a cute puppy, you are using your automatic system, the parts of the brain associated with the automatic system are those associated with the oldest part of the brain, the part we share with lizards and puppies, the reflexive system is more deliberate and self concious.
The automatic system starts with no idea how to play golf or tennis, countless hours of practice however make one avoid reflection and use thae automatic system, (thus rahul could have possibly become even a greater one day player, )good golfers( like good cricketers) know the hazards of thinking too much, and might do better to just trust the gut and "just do it", the automatic system can be trained with a lot of repetition-but such training needs lot of time and effort, one reason why teenagers are risky drivers is that their automatic system has not had much practice and the reflexive system is much slower.

Reflexive thinking involves following rules, but automatic thinking does not involve breaking them, infact automatic thinking if honed does not need to be destructive, infact automatic thinking can coexist with reflexive thinking in the same person, witness yusuf's long match-winning innings for proof!!

If Yusuf can rely on his automatic system without getting India into trouble, our teams cricket life and his will be easier better and longer, but this means honing his automatic system to perfection like Viv Richards.....

Sunday, 25 September 2011

subsidies-at whose cost?

Subsidies in punjab, for rice and wheat which are not responsive to price, are wasteful expenditure and lead to high fiscal deficits , meanwhile low supply of fruits and vegetables leads to inflation, here i quote steven landsburg on a similar topic-
the author is being served at a restaurant with a numbered queue, one person(no.37) got tired of waiting and gave her number to another person(no.45),everyone at the restaurant praised her for not wasting her place in the queue.What these people failed to realise was that one person moving eight places ahead means moving eight people one place back, without changing the only thing that matters-the number of persons being served
the underlying point is that things must addup.Politicians routinely give things away for free making economists wonder where the extra resources are going to come from.Tell that to the politicians in Punjab....!!!

Thursday, 8 September 2011

Ram ki Leela rang laayee shyam ne bansee bajayee-Wah Gujarat!!Gujarati business with a twist!!

This is the story of Nadeem Jafri and Wazir Ali, you must have heard of Nadim Jafri in these blogs earlier if not let me enlighten you , he is the Dilip Kumar Playing Ram in this story, he runs a chain of 11 convenience stores-Hearty Mart-in Juhapura, Ahmedabad and parts of North and Central Gujarat. Shyam is Wazir Ali who is Nadeems partner in Hearty Mart Enterprise. Nadeem faced a problem, he did not have scale to pass on heavy discounts to customers as other retail giants. So Jafri started supplying goods to hoteliers and partnered Wazir Ali, for a bulk business enterprise. Today, their partnership, Hearty Mart Enterprise, boasts private labels for tea, spices, ketchup, etc.

We know Ram’s story well from previous blogs, so let us hear Shyaam’s story.Wazir Ali started a papad factory called Ashish Papad between 2003-05, he had 50 to 60 clients between Ahmedabad and ankleshwar, these clients transferred to his wholesale supply business of mirchi, paapad, dhania, haldi and later jeera, variali, reqt increased, product range increased.In 2007 he started Ashish brand mirchi.He started a joint venture with Muhammad bhai a kiryana store owner in Kanodar.Bhai was aware of suppliers and purchasers.Company was growing but no vision.

This is when vision of Ram-Nadim Jafri started in 2008, Nadim did not have scale and manpower though he wanted to grow into hotel supplies. They started in July 2008 with Good Time-Whole Spices, non processed and lutf sauces and a range of processed masala called Chef ki pasand.as well as Day break tea. The story of Day Break Tea is interesting as the nearby hotels in highways had huge tea demand this product picked up fast. From 200 hotels they have grown to supplying 500 hotels.

Their vision is to grow into a food company, meanwhile there is another division of Hearty mart called Hearty Mart logistics which provides supply chain connect between hearty mart enterprises and franchise. Logistics also provides distribution for Mr
Puff products. The connect between Nadeem and his franchises is due to bakr ali who looks after Hearty Mart logistics.Thus one part of the business feeds into the other.

From plain traders of spices like MDH, baadshah, everest, they have grown into suppliers. The business has grown and with it, they have. Future Plans includes a factory for their own products like Chef ki pasand which will be built in four to six months. Clearly Hearty Mart is growing from humble beginnings to modest growth to a grand future, from rented godowns and factory to own factory from trading to Production, to Corporate house.

Ram(Nadim) has two roles one as spiritual guide and Entrepreneur Creator and Two as Professional and adviser. But he has feet firmly on Ground. “Dabur etc took years to build up image, right now I am happy to operate within the humble model of providing to the community”

Clearly his vision is like the leela of Dilip Kumar in Ram aur Shyaam, will his vision lead us to say Wah(Taj)!to this story of Gujarati Entrepreneurship-One more feather in the Cap of Developing Gujarat!!

Saturday, 20 August 2011

Books and movies for yr spare time...

This is a list from personal experience ask yr book and video library for further  details..

Sunny Days, Idols, Runs n Ruins-Sunil Gavaskar
From Midnight to Millenium Shashi Tharoor
Indias political Economy 47-04 Francine Frankael
Ramachandra Guha
Idea of India
Idea of Pakistan
A short history of nearly everything
Nudge
Fooled By Randomness
The Black Swan
Curtain-Poirots last case
The Other Side Of Midnight and other Sheldons
Bourne Ultimatum, Parsifal Mosaic and other Ludlums
Psmith and other wodehouses
Movies-
Tum Hassen main jawaan, International Crook, yaadon ki Baaraat, Shalimmaar and other movies of Dharmendra
Rafoo Chakkar, dhan Daulat, Khel Khel main, Jhoota kahin kaa and other movies of Rishi Kapoor
Insaaf Reintroducing Vinod khanna and other movies of Vinod Khanna
Dharmatma, Apraadh, Naagin, Jaanbaaz and other movies of Feroz Khan
Kaalicharan and other movies of Shatrughan Sinha
Choti Si Baat, Rajnigandha, Golmal nand other movies of Bengali directors
Baawarchi and other movies of Rajesh Khanna
Nehle pe Dehla and other movies of Sunil Dutt
Humjoli and other movies of Jeetendra
Kaamchor, Khoon Bhari Maang and other movies of Raakesh Roshan
Pyaar Kiye jaa and other movies of Shashi Kapoor
Professor and other movies of shammi kapoor
Biwi o Biwi, rampur ka laxman, Chacha bhatija, Mama Bhanja and other movies of Randhir kapoor
Movies of sanjeev Kumar, amol palekar,movies directed by yash chopra, rahul rawail, shakti samanta,brij,manmohan desai, Subhash Gahi, raj kapoor, Ramesh Sippy,Saawan Kumar,Ramanand Saagar and the list goes on...ask yr vcd shop owner for help after showing him this list

Monday, 8 August 2011

Rural urban Continuum – A perspective-by Nadim Jafri, Munish Alagh and Siddhartha Saxena

Having a few interesting Professor Friends is an enriching and exciting experience. And if one of the Professors happens to be a Post Doctoral Fellow from a prestigious Institute like IIMA, you would not have asked for more. I am a first generator entrepreneur (Nadeem Jafri – Managing Partner, Hearty Mart) and I have always cherished such valued interactions. This blog is a small story of one such interactions of mine with my elite friend and Professor Dr. Munish Alagh (Post Doctoral Fellow IIMA, CMA area) at IIMA along with academic associate(OB area, IIMA) Siddharth. 
It was a warm afternoon and I was called to meet them in one of the plush cabins of the faculty wing of IIMA. I was asked to sit beside them and was getting prepared to be grilled by my knowledgeable counterparts.
“Rural Urban Continuum has always fascinated me”. Said Sidharth. Thus he announced that my interview had begun. Sidharth claimed that his initial interest in the subject was developed after he went through a column written by Dr. Y.K.Alagh, another eminent Economist and authority on the subject. And his further interactions and discussions with Dr. Munish Alagh added fuel to the fire. He wanted to really work on the subject now. His entire interview with me was hence in the light of ‘Rural Urban Continuum’.
Before my actual interview started, Siddharth felt it was important for me to understand the concept and hence he briefed me about the subject. As per Siddharth the term “Rural-Urban-Continuum” is very different from “Ruralisation” but most of the people mistake it for one. May be theoretically it can be understood as Ruralisation but it lacks proper definition and when we look in a broader sense we need to look at the terms as ‘Rural Areas’ and ‘Urban Areas’.
A distinction between rural and urban areas is not always possible in a single definition that is applicable to all countries or even to different areas in a country. Ideally, the useful definition of an urban area is in terms of level of infrastructure, availability of civic amenities, and proportions of land uses as well as conventional factors like density of population and pro-portion of non agricultural work force.

Though the divide in population is large between Urban and Rural, the demands are almost of the identical nature. Those days are a foregone era where Roti, Kapda and Makan were the convention associated with Rural Area and Car/Bikes/Refrigerators were representing Urban status. Things have changed for good now. Depopulation of rural areas in favour of urban counterparts is a well-known feature of many modern societies. In fact people leaving their countryside has shown the rural areas in a bad light; not capable of providing necessary sustenance like jobs, education opportunities to their folks. Furthermore, out-migration reduces the ability of the rural societies to serve the needs of those remaining, as population decline empties these societies of vital human resources such as labour supply (Aasbrenn, 1989). On the other hand, new trends of counter-urbanization, which have become prominent in some societies (Boyle et al., 1998), are interpreted as signs of renewed viability of rural areas and may promise a new and brighter future for the countryside (Stockdale, 2004).

Thus the general trend is to see out-migration as a problem for rural societies while in-migration is seen as positive for the countryside. Population change in rural areas therefore becomes a social barometer that monitors the health of the rural. (Acta Sociologica * March 2006 * Vol 49(1): 47-49). We will be talking about this changing Scenario by quoting Hearty Mart example which is taking steps to overcome this divide and change the rules of the game forever.


 Hearty Mart –
About Hearty Mart we all know as the same was discussed and written in the previous blog (http://munsseekingknowledge.blogspot.com/2011/07/hearty-mart-and-principles-of economics.html). Here, the story would be seen in a different light discussing various mechanisms, diversification and few business as well as legal questions pertaining to the franchise model and few insights on market reputation and operations. We will also touch upon the issues of contracts, rural market as a necessity, opportunism v/s social development – Context, Diversification and Resource constraint thesis and its impact on Hearty Mart.
Opportunism or Social Context – As an Entrepreneur I do look for profits in various transactions but that is not the sole motive always.  I believe that if my venture can bring in positive change, without certain efforts fetching me monies, I would be equally satisfied. I strive in this direction not only through Hearty Mart but also through developing and creating new ventures which benefit people and the community and also help maintain my business. For example we have floated a firm named Hearty Mart Farm Services, wherein we provide easy and free access to information to farming community by way of lectures and get-togethers in their villages. In these lectures they are educated about the benefits of organic farming and tips are given to them free of cost to increase their farm yields without increasing the input costs. This has benefitted both of us - farmers get good returns and increase on their yields and we get a supply chain formation which helps me in sustaining my different ventures. The trust within the community has helped me in this area.
Contracts- When contracts are made formal and legal, the people get repulsed and they don’t show any interest in such associations. We have countered this by not making any legal contract with our franchise partners; since most of them are from the community we trust them and they trust us. Our contracts are either on plain paper or letter heads signed by both the parties. It ensures that we both the parties should honour the written word of the contract without legally binding each other. Thus our Customer-Client Relations are further strengthened and my experience up till now is very motivating.
Quality – Since we are not legally bound, the readers might feel that then Quality at the franchises may not be upto the mark, but that is not the case and in fact the franchise partners are equally concerned about the brand Hearty Mart and they shun the substandard products. Products which are sold through our franchises are standardized and Quality is maintained. We conduct surprise visits once in two months to further ensure that Quality standards are adhered to.
Rural Environment-  Rural environment  is very essential for  Hearty Mart’s growth as per the last blog (http://munsseekingknowledge.blogspot.com/2011/07/hearty-mart-and-principles-of-economics.html) and the certain issues would be pointed out in resource-constraint thesis also (Siddharth would cover the same in his next blog), that Hearty Mart as Hybrid Franchise Model came into pictures as I (Nadeem) did not want to invest my complete monies in Hearty mart and the reason were obvious as it had its own repercussions:
·        If I alone had to invest in all the property and development of infrastructure of the store, it would have taken my business a lot of time to break even. Thus promoting a franchisee model was one of the better options.

·        Money would have been blocked for longer period in this case.
Hence the franchise model made more business viability. May be the autonomy was lost and also the control to a certain extent but in the bargain the trust in the community helped business expansion and reduction in risk; even the breakeven could be achieved faster with the franchise model. It also negated the implications of changing real estate scenario on my business.
Thus the Rural environment was the only market where it could have flourished; as open new market means negligible competition. It further reinforces our point Rural market, is of course now as attractive as urban market for various businesses.